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Proparoo
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Post by Proparoo » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:23 pm

Yes I agree it might not start till Sat. afternoon :(

Bummer to waist a "Hall Pass" especially at the end of the season.

Might just have to use the pass to :drinkers:
Rich "ATOM" Baum

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OliverG
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Post by OliverG » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:40 pm

I think we will have some wind at the Delta tomorrow. Not based on anything other than looking out from deck in the Oakland hills and seeing lots of lovely fog, but even the iKite forecast is calling some tomorrow in the PM at Sherman. Keep your eye on it as the fog could fill in thick tonight. I will post my observations from the deck with regards to fog in the morning early...

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OliverG
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Post by OliverG » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:10 pm

At 8PM Thursday, Sherman is at 18 WSW with fog coming in and Crissy, Berkeley, TI and Angel Island all showing good numbers. Keep your fingers crossed... Looking out from my deck the fog is denser and higher now and is trying to come in fast, but the inland pressure and residual N flow is trying to push it back, kind of strange to see actually...

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Bulldog
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Post by Bulldog » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:41 pm

Sacto NWS is backing you up, Ollie.

"Stratus came back faster than thought last night with feet Ord
indicating about a 1500 feet marine layer. This should mean enough
onshore flow through the Delta zone for a SW Zephyr keeping temperatures a tad cooler on Friday where that area had a continuation of light northerly winds on Thursday."

It might be worth braving the holiday traffic to get a Friday night session in, hmmmm.
Paul
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It says 10M, but it's really a 9.

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narly1
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Post by narly1 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:27 am

for all my friends....

FoG...
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satlo ... fog&size=2

as of 6.30am
Narly1

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Bulldog
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Post by Bulldog » Fri Sep 01, 2006 7:14 am

It's the perfect setup for thermal wind:

Hot air stuck over the valley, cool air jamming the coast and making fog. North wind is gone here, so the giant sucking has started and it will be smooth and steady until the trough moves inland Saturday night. Then it will nuke all day on Sunday.
Paul
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It says 10M, but it's really a 9.

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fearlu
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Post by fearlu » Fri Sep 01, 2006 8:18 am

Season closer underway! Tule juice is FREE on "Spare the Air" days.
Go bigga'

Proparoo
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Post by Proparoo » Fri Sep 01, 2006 8:49 am

Hello big Dave

Good to have you in on this. I think you for one know a thing or two about this subject.
This is a really hard weekend to predict but as most of us "oldtimers" know, it gets progressivly harder to predict the later in the year we go.

Yes Paul, eventhough NOAA forcast is not that good (or good at all) all the signs are lineing up for a good weekend.

The windtalker is reading 15 from the west (worth a drive)

There is very good fog in the Bay.

They are calling for 100+ in Sacto.

Pressure @ 8:42 is only .05 diff from SF to SAC but we will see if it gets better.

2:30 am NOAA Marine forcast is :

SAN FRANCISCO SAN PABLO SUISUN BAY AND THE WEST DELTA- 223 AM PDT FRI SEP 1 2006 ...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... .

TODAY...E WINDS 5 TO 15 KT...BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MORNING FOG. .

TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...BECOMING SW 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. .

SAT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .

SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...BECOMING SW 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. .

SUN...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .

LABOR DAY AND TUE...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

We will have to see the 8:30 Marine forcast but I predict we will not see an East wind as in the past forcast.

Here is the forcast disscussion for SF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 430 AM PDT FRI SEP 1 2006 .DISCUSSION...THE FT ORD PROFILER THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO 1400 FT. SATL IMAGERY INDC STRATUS HAS MOVED UP ALONG THE COAST PAST PT ARENA...INTO SF BAY...INTO THE NORTH BAY...AND DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY TO NEAR SAN ARDO. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS FORMED OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST RESULTING IN A SOUTH FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE BUOYS. FROM BUOY 13 NEAR PT ARENA SOUTH TO BUOY 42 OUTSIDE MONTEREY BAY THE WINDS ARE SOUTH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE MARINE LAYER MOVING INTO THE NORTH BAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ARCATA- SFO IS NOW FLAT COMPARED TO NORTHERLY AT 3.6 MB YESTERDAY MORNING. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFO-SAC HAS INCREASED TO 2.0 MB COMPARED TO 1.2 MB YESTERDAY MORNING. THE LARGER SCALE SFO-WMC IS STILL OFFSHORE AT 6.1 MB COMPARED TO 6.7 MB YESTERDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROF WILL MOVE TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST BY SATURDAY. WV IMAGERY INDC A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WHICH SHOULD LIFT NE TONIGHT. WITH THE SOUTH FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...HAVE DROPPED FORECAST TEMPS IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TEMPS. EVEN THOUGH THE TROF MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING HEIGHTS...THE NORTH BAY SHOULD BE WARMER AS THE FLOW BECOMES WEST OR NW WHICH WILL KEEP THE MARINE AIR TO THE SOUTH OVER SF BAY. SUNDAY COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT AS HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS LOWER. THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE NEXT WEEK ON HOW THEY HANDLE HURRICANE JOHN AND ITS REMNANTS. THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE WEST FROM THE DESERT SW WHICH PUSHES THE HURRICANE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE RIDGE WEAKER AND ALLOWS THE REMNANTS OF JOHN TO MOVE UP THE BAJA COAST AND INTO ARIZONA WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO THE DISTRICT. HAVE OPTED TO GO W/THE EURO WHICH HAS A BETTER TRACK RECORD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE.
Rich "ATOM" Baum

Proparoo
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Post by Proparoo » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:28 am

8:30 NOAA Marine Forcast Update

And yes my prediction was correct, no more E wind in todays forcast,

BRING IT ON... =D>

SAN FRANCISCO SAN PABLO SUISUN BAY AND THE WEST DELTA- 838 AM PDT FRI SEP 1 2006 ...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... .

TODAY...S WINDS 5 KT...BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MORNING FOG. .

TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...BECOMING SW 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. .

SAT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .

SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...BECOMING SW 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. .

SUN...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .

LABOR DAY AND TUE...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG.
Rich "ATOM" Baum

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narly1
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Post by narly1 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:38 pm

God i loVe thE FoG...

I banged out of berkeley toDay,

Got to play hide and seek with the pier...

I used to pick just the biggest holes to cross threw....
now i likE the Smallest...
Good swell,
And lots of wind ,with just one other vegas to slaSh and TuRn with.
looked like the foG was buld n when i left.

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satlo ... vis&size=2
Narly1

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