Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

[ddubwinokur]

Seriously, this is about the most helpful forum I have ever joined! Thanks again for all the advice.

So, recognizing that I should trust Yuri, I did go out to Alameda today. And things were horribly lame (for me - others looked amazing) until around 5, at which point things picked up, and even more so again at 6. By 6.30 things were at high teens to 20 for at least a solid half hour!

So thanks again for all the advice and recommendations, all. Fiance notwithstanding, I do feel pretty ready for 3rd - I'll hopefully hit it for the first time next week.

One question about 3rd. What do you do if you miss the last beach and start drifting towards the bridge? Get the Fastrak ready?

ddub/Dan Winokur

[Sonny]

If you come to 3rd, come see me and I give tell you about all what to watch out for. I drive a purple dodge truck with license plate SSWORDS and I always park by the lower beach.

[windhorny]

Yeah, yesterday was off/on. Weird that the sensor said 19/22 for a while when it was more like 15. But later on I was pretty lit on my 10. Alameda is like a box of chocolates. And I am NO meteorologist! Just been kiting here for a long time.

[le noun]

I was definitely not able to go upwind when I started going to 3rd ave!
But I had my self rescue completely dialed in from alameda.
I did the walk from the lower launch to the upper launch a few times and even the walk of shame from last chance beach once.
Don't be afraid to ask people. The lower launch gang is super friendly.
(if you come with a pack of beer they even get friendlier, but chances are, Leo already have plenty on the back of his car). :mrgreen:

[nick_80044]

One question about 3rd. What do you do if you miss the last beach and start drifting towards the bridge? Get the Fastrak ready?

ddub/Dan Winokur

Not sure which "last beach" you're referring to. There's the "lower launch," which is an "official" landing beach, and then there are three other "last chance" beaches where you can land in a pinch. If you look at Foster City in Google Maps in the Satellite view, you can see where these are. The third "last chance" beach is a just a tiny strip of sand very close to the bridge, so you definitely don't want to end up there if you can avoid it. The other two are a little friendlier, but all are small and became less available the higher the tide goes, so keep that in mind.

[jwest21]

A picture is worth a thousand words.

[NCKite_Ryder]

Yeah, yesterday was off/on. Weird that the sensor said 19/22 for a while when it was more like 15. But later on I was pretty lit on my 10. Alameda is like a box of chocolates. And I am NO meteorologist! Just been kiting here for a long time.

The beach was all PhuKED up also.. I was waiting for someone to actually get upwind... it said it was windy on Kelly's but the kites were showing otherwise.. then it popped at sunset.

Today is the SpRiNg TeAsE... I can't imagine it stays calm this weekend, usually spring just= rips for two week intervals.

[kitenaked]

Yeah, yesterday was off/on. Weird that the sensor said 19/22 for a while when it was more like 15. But later on I was pretty lit on my 10. Alameda is like a box of chocolates. And I am NO meteorologist! Just been kiting here for a long time.

The beach was all PhuKED up also.. I was waiting for someone to actually get upwind... it said it was windy on Kelly's but the kites were showing otherwise.. then it popped at sunset.

Today is the SpRiNg TeAsE... I can't imagine it stays calm this weekend, usually spring just= rips for two week intervals.

Yah, last year I had 9 or 10 days straight in April about this time in Benicia.

[rvv]

I find computer forecasts to be more reliable during the winter, spring and fall. For example, windguru (solely computer models) can predict a good, kiteable winter or spring day accurately several days in advance. I have yet to see it make a wrong winter forecast (never happened to me since 2010)

However in summer months I find the computer models to be pretty useless because I don't think they take into account microclimates, thermals etc. So during summer I rely on human forecasts.

For the months of April and May, it is wise to consult both computer and human, but during April I give more credence to the computer models

I second this...Nws for the idea of wind etc...and the human touch for your spot!
I humanly predict a very windy season it started last week and next week will be epic starting Tuesday "; ";

[NCKite_Ryder]

[quote="rvvI humanly predict a very windy season it started last week and next week will be epic starting Tuesday "; ";[/quote]

I'm sticking with the threory of not being able to stop the Spring... not that our local forecasters are not EPIC (thanks guys), just that the pressure system seems to jump around sporadically in the spring.. last nights forecast was puke but today its on again... THANKFULLY!!

I happen to be an afterwork weekend warrior.