...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

[Proparoo]

SAN FRANCISCO SAN PABLO SUISUN BAY AND THE WEST DELTA-
311 AM PDT SAT MAR 24 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WINDS 10 TO 20 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 TO 20 KT.
.MON...W WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SHOWERS LIKELY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED...NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
451 AM PDT SAT MAR 24 2007

DISCUSSION...MARINE STRATUS IS BUILDING ITS PRESENCE ALONG THE COAST
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD AND IS PRESENTLY NUDGING INTO
THE ENTRANCE OF SF BAY. STRATUS NORTH OF SF BAY IS MORE OFFSHORE
AT THE MOMENT AS CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD. THE FORT ORD PROFILER
SHOWS THE INVERSION HEIGHT HAS LIFTED TO 1400 FEET. STRATUS IS
PUSHING INLAND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE AND FILLING THE
SALINAS VALLEY. THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL TRANSLATE INTO COOLER
TEMPS TODAY...WARMEST MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA AT 70+ DEGREES WHILE THE EASTERN BORDER OF
THE CWA SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 70. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MODEL HAS WAFFLED A BIT ON SUNDAY`S RAIN SCENARIO...HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE
THE DAY WHEN THE REGION WILL GET THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. QPF ESTIMATES FROM
THE CNRFC ARE INDICATING 0.3-1.00 INCHES FOR MONDAY...NORTH BAY
COUNTIES FALLING INTO THE 0.5-1 INCH RANGE.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR MONDAY`S FORECAST IS THE MUCH COLDER
AIR DROPPING SOUTH WITH THIS STORM. BOTH THE GFS 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
PROG 500 MB TEMPS TO BE AT -22 DEGREES C BY MONDAY EARLY EVENING
AND DIPPING DOWN TO -30 DEGREES C BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE 1000-
500 MB THICKNESS WILL HOVER NEAR 5320 M WHICH SHOULD DROP SNOW
LEVELS DOWN AROUND 3000 FEET. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD SET UP ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND PUT COASTAL WATERS INTO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE STORM SHOULD BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A
RIDGE WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MUCH DRIER
WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.