Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

by **ddubwinokur** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:59 pm

Does anyone know why this is so, and which to trust?

Why is there a difference between the computer models and human forecast? Which is more reliable? If the forecast says 14-18 tomorrow, will that really be enough to crank upwind on my 11M?

Ultimately, I'm just sick of driving from SF to Alameda, only to be bummed out that there's not enough wind to have any fun.

Thanks - ddub

by **tomerp** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:28 am

I find computer forecasts to be more reliable during the winter, spring and fall. For example, windguru (solely computer models) can predict a good, kiteable winter or spring day accurately several days in advance. I have yet to see it make a wrong winter forecast (never happened to me since 2010)

However in summer months I find the computer models to be pretty useless because I don't think they take into account microclimates, thermals etc. So during summer I rely on human forecasts.

For the months of April and May, it is wise to consult both computer and human, but during April I give more credence to the computer models

by **le noun** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:55 am

why would you go to alameda if you live in the city? just go to third ave. especially if your biggest kite is 11m.

by **windhorny** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 9:01 am

I totally agree that the computer is much more reliable than the human forecast. But alameda is probably the hardest place to forecast of any in the bay. I have been kiting here for 9 years and can say the only way to have good probability of wind here is if the forecast for the whole bay is good. I have the advantage of living on the beach so I just go out when it picks up but I can see how frustrating it can be to come out based on a forecast only to see no kites in the air. AND to make things more complicated, the sensor is not always what you get on the water. Depending on direction it can be much stronger a few hundred feet out. Good luck!

oh yeah, I am pretty confident that today will be a good day at Alameda. Last night it came in good. Fog is still there. Inland is warming up. Sherman is already blowing. IT's spring!

by **ianwallace14** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 9:44 am

ddub,

Why don't you come out to the beach!?

by **ddubwinokur** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 11:16 am

All, thanks for the tips.

Tomerp, really useful points on models vs. humans and the seasons. Will keep that in mind.

As for today... shit you guys are giving me opposite advice! 3rd will clearly blow and I had all but written Alameda off, then Windhorny says it'll be good. Confusing, I will probably make a call right before I get in the car prior to traffic...

Lenoun, reason I head to Alameda is simply because I've never done 3rd before. I can "hold my ground" easily and go upwind when I have enough power - just not always. I figure I need to really trust my upwind before hitting 3rd - is that right?

Thanks guys. For suck a freakin peanut gallery you all are damn helpful

ddub

by **nick_80044** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 11:45 am

ddubwinokur wrote:Lenoun, reason I head to Alameda is simply because I've never done 3rd before. I can "hold my ground" easily and go upwind when I have enough power - just not always. I figure I need to really trust my upwind before hitting 3rd - is that right?

I say go for it. I started going to Third when I couldn't go upwind or even get up on my left side because I got frustrated waiting for wind on the beach at Alameda. If you're heading downwind, the ride is brief and then you have to land your kite and walk back to the upper launch, which is a hassle. But the wind is usually pretty good there so it sounds like you should do well.

by **tomerp** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:27 pm

most important for third is your ability to self rescue in case the winds shuts off or you end up in a wind shadow at the lower launch. I recommend practicing self rescue a few times and also working on your upwind skills in Alameda in the months of April and May, to improve your upwind skill. At that point you will be ready just in time for summer at 3rd ave.

Given that, were I you, I would take a bigger kite and try my luck in alameda serveral times a week for the rest of this month and May, before hitting 3rd.

Today will be probably good in alameda with a bigger kite.

ddubwinokur wrote:All, thanks for the tips.

Lenoun, reason I head to Alameda is simply because I've never done 3rd before. I can "hold my ground" easily and go upwind when I have enough power - just not always. I figure I need to really trust my upwind before hitting 3rd - is that right?

Thanks guys. For suck a freakin peanut gallery you all are damn helpful

ddub

by **elli** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:29 pm

Alameda is already at solid 12, so I would take Yuris human prediction for the day. Third looks like its headed for a killer day. Your call, but if you want an Alameda day is low risk to drive there (but not NO risk).

by **NCKite_Ryder** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 1:53 pm

ddubwinokur wrote:
Thanks guys. For suck a freakin peanut gallery you all are damn helpful

ddub

Thats some funny shit.

Yes, they are all correct. Sounds like you are ready for third.

I remember my first day at 3rd (2006). On a 04 13m fuel w/ 2" of throw on the bar, 163 Slingshot Drake TT, and TONS of wind. I was managing fine until I lost my board. It was so freaking windy I was just skipping downwind towards the bridge, unable to body drag cause i couldn't stay in the water. Some legend brought me my board and dumped it in front of me. I was able to get back up wind but then missed the landing on my way back in (not easy when you suck). Had to self rescue, and came in on the rocks (first of about 3 rescues at third). Ahh.. the memories of sucking.

Some tips for Third:
Try to get out early and get back in early so the wind doesn't shut down on you. And so you don't end up self-rescuing in the dark (gets lonley out there).
Low tides can be your friend, you can touch pretty far out on the right tides.
Launch at the upper launch and get upwind as soon as possible. Gives yourself space for error.
Stay within a small swim of the shore so you do not have a long rescue.
If you can stay upwind, come in at the upper lauch there is a huge shadow at the lower launch and it takes some skill to keep the kite up in it. (SWIRLS).
Bring a cell phone if you are alone.. gives you a little piece of mind.
It gets more and more windy the further you tack out to the channel. If its kinda light and you think you can't stay upwind consider going out further to get more power. (but know your limits)

Everyone has to pop their cherry sooner or later, and then you have to pop the OB/OCEAN cherry. (the inside at many of our surfspots are actually pretty safe if you stay inside)