Bay Area Rental Housing SUCKS right now!

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Bay Area Rental Housing SUCKS right now!

Postby jono » Wed May 05, 2010 6:42 pm

Both of these images are Alameda. The top image are foreclosures, the bottom rentals. This SHOULD be the other way around.

The foreclosure/rental ratio is reversed right now...

Landlord renting our house to us just got foreclosed, we get 3 months rent free. I still don't want to buy cause I know it's going to come down more to unload all this foreclosure inventory...

We are looking for a place to rent if anyone has tips -- must be a single family house and Diablito da Dog friendly.

We are actually considering a slightly fancy (longer-term setup with washer, solar, etc.) 5th wheel at Sherman for summer then move it down near San Jose/Santa Cruz for Winter.

Anyone know a cool RV spot between SJ and Santa Cruz? Is this a crazy idea to even consider? RVs are super cheap right now too so not paying rent and buying the RV outright would save mass cash in a short time. I've just never even slept in an RV, have no idea of the costs for rental space, what it would really be like, etc.
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Re: Bay Area Rental Housing SUCKS right now!

Postby Loscocco » Wed May 05, 2010 7:50 pm

its about time to buy!
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Re: Bay Area Rental Housing SUCKS right now!

Postby OliverG » Wed May 05, 2010 8:26 pm

Jono,

If you make a move to go RV, don't spend much, seriously, and only look at it as short term. Beyond that, think of any trailer as summer recreational use. Your truck is ideal for towing.

Now, and throughout the year into the fall is a good time to buy real estate.

I've just never even slept in an RV, have no idea of the costs for rental space, what it would really be like, etc.


Haha, it seemed like you spent half a summer in your camper shell at SI, so I think you'd be fine.

Regardless of what trailer you get, there's a reason 5th wheel ones cost less. They just have less resale value and are cheaper because most people don't want one. You have to mount the 5th wheel hitch in your bed, it takes almost the whole bed, can't use camper shell, less bed utility just a hassle really. Only benefit is shorter overall wheelbase when towing, but if you don't plan to travel and tow it much, doesn't matter. IMO, 2" receiver hitch ones are better, allow full use of your bed and/or shell, and when it comes to sell, much easier to sell. Not that I would know, I haven't even posted mine on craigslist or gotten out to take pics of it. By the time I do that, it'll be nice and windy at SI and maybe might be nice to stay in it a bit. Haha... I guess for $16.50/month storage and $50/year registration, cost of ownership is cheap. :-k
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Re: Bay Area Rental Housing SUCKS right now!

Postby elli » Thu May 06, 2010 3:22 pm

Instead of buying, you can get rental at good price in an area that has rent control.
That's such a good deal for life that even when you buy a home a few years down the road it may not be economical to live in it, so you keep renting.

Berkeley and San Francisco come to mind. If you have kids I would guess Berkeley, and if not San Francisco.
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Re: Bay Area Rental Housing SUCKS right now!

Postby stone » Thu May 06, 2010 7:47 pm

I'm not buying until the local Case-Schiller index comes down to at least 120, preferably 100. That may mean I rent for the next 20 years, or more likely move somewhere I can buy outright and not be leveraged.

I could be wrong, but Japan showed that after an epic bubble real estate can slide for 20 straight years.
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Re: Bay Area Rental Housing SUCKS right now!

Postby OliverG » Thu May 06, 2010 10:05 pm

Not likely to happen here. Look at the last 10,15,20, 30, 40 years. Sometimes are better to buy than others, but when it really "good"?

Location, even here in the Bay Area, is important. While some areas have seen drastic declines, many haven't. Choose a "good" neighborhood where people want to live and values are unlikely to be affected very much at all. So, in that sense, in these "good" neighborhoods, it's never an ideal time to buy. People will always want to live there, so barring any major, catastrophic national and global decline, it's pretty safe. Oh wait, we already had one of those! And it's still safe.

Many properties are attractively priced now, and the cheapest ones now can appreciate in value but will again be the first to fall in the future in times of stress. I guess I'm just saying that now is a good time to buy a desirable house in a desirable neighborhood. It may not be as good a deal as stressed properties in stressed neighborhoods, but will be a more stable buy.
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Re: Bay Area Rental Housing SUCKS right now!

Postby jono » Fri May 07, 2010 2:18 am

Thanks for the RV tips -- I get the idea. The 5th Wheels are super cheap right now and seem like they might have more features than the hitch ones, but I'll have to keep looking into this.

Does anyone know any parks, places, etc. down near San Jose? Where's some National Forest when you need it ;).

=======================================
About the rental/housing market, I'm the one that called the late gold rally on this same forum 1.5 years ago, told everyone to get out of stocks and gold/cash and avoided the 40% "correction" most people suffered on their 401Ks.

Housing is just heading into the double dip right now. Case-Schiller just pointed downward again and the number of outstanding Option-ARMs that are going to reset is peaking in the next two years. Those are the loans that wiped out my landlord -- she wasn't subprime, she was Option-ARM. I don't read any analysis, I just look at the numbers. Here are the charts if you want to see them:

http://blog.redfin.com/sfbay/2010/04/ca ... _area.html

This is the Option-ARM reset chart:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com//images/bl ... graph8.gif

Let's not even get into what happened today with that 10% swing in 1 hour -- insanity.
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Re: Bay Area Rental Housing SUCKS right now!

Postby adamrod » Fri May 07, 2010 9:32 am

You know how we have the annual CPR/First aid training seminar? How about Jono hosts an investing one?
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Re: Bay Area Rental Housing SUCKS right now!

Postby jono » Fri May 07, 2010 8:27 pm

Haha, maybe I need to send Brigette to the CPR cause this market is giving me a heart attack.

In the area between Pacifica to Livermore, bounded by Mill Valley and Walnut Creek to the north, there are currently 560 single family homes for rent. In that same square there are 7938 single family home foreclosures. That's a 14:1 ratio of foreclosures to rentals.

I knew shit was bad, but had no idea it was 14:1 bad. That ratio should be reversed normally...

When you see the auto-loans on the car commercials move above 0-2% APR for a new car, you know the recession is over. If they say "Finance a new Jetta/Ford/Honda for 0% APR for 60 months" that means we are still in a recession.

Anyway, based on the other feedback I think trying to hack it out in an RV all winter out at Sherman Lake might not be something I can do. Where is the nearest National Forest -- you can camp in that shit as long as you like and the scenery is usually much better.
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