Ikitesurf is back to Forecasting

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Ikitesurf is back to Forecasting

Postby narly1 » Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:29 am

we got more tools to use, to find are wind!
ikitesurf is back to human forecasts.

so i guess its the season.
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Postby alison » Sat Mar 31, 2007 11:42 am

Your talking about the onshakyground link? What a great site! Real time wind!!

Anyone know where that meter is or how to compensate for it?

I was watching it last Sunday I think and it was bouncing around 10-11mph so I decided not to go out and at the end of the day read all about everyone's great sessions. I was so bummed.

Also, am I reading their blurb correctly? Kite WInd Surf would prefer people not link through their website if your keep it up but go directly to the site?


Thanks
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Postby narly1 » Sat Mar 31, 2007 12:00 pm

hey alison

i was talkin about this site
http://www.ikitesurf.com/

its a pay to use kind of thing
this guy mike g and others forecast for them in season
mikes good with the coast and delta..
the bays a crap shoot.
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Postby Proparoo » Sat Mar 31, 2007 1:42 pm

One thing to remember, ikitesurf gets most of their forcasting from Mike Godsey and he lives out of state in the Gorge, so I guess my point is, after 10 years of paying for their service I got fed up with their 50% forecasts and started learning to forecast 50% on my own for free. Sites like NOAA will basically give you the same info iktesurf gets.

Marine Forecast

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mtr/getcwfzone. ... zone=PZ530 ,

Forecast Discussion

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/ ... tr&pil=afd

Current Pressure Readings between SF and Sacramento

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/versprod.ph ... STO&vers=0,

Fog Graphs

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php?wfo=sto.

Wind talker
916-777-7007

Sherman Web Cam

http://www.rvwa.com/webcam.htm

Remember to "Bookmark" all the above web addresses.


It's all there and it's for free. All you need to do is to learn how to interperate this information and it's not hard.

Now don't get me wrong, my forecasts are not correct all of the time but at least it's for free and I really like learning about weather. First thing I do in the morning is check my NOAA sites. You can also see what the wind did the previous day on ikitesurf archives for free...

As far as real time wind reports, I have always felt that if I lived near the bay I would never do without this feature. As there are so many sites to kite, and with the price of gas, it's very important to know where it's blowing, but for me, as I live in Sacramento I only need to know if Sherman is blowing. With my forecasting and the wind talker, I can usuially nail it down about 80% of the time. Let's just say, between mid May and Sept. I rarely get skunked and many days ikitesurf longterm forecasts no wind and we are all out having a blast.

Now if I have the cash to get the full blown ikitesurf package HELL I would do it in a minute,

All we need in information, the more the better.

Just my $ .20 worth...
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Postby Bulldog » Sat Mar 31, 2007 2:11 pm

Rich (& Alison),
IF Ikite saves you from getting skunked 4x, it's paid for itself. It costs me and you 20-30 bucks just in gas to drive to any kitebeach (except Folsom for you). And that's not counting your (wasted) time, which to me is extremely valuable.

Windtalker is currently quoting 11 and it's blowing 18 at the SI launch. With the new Ikite sensor on Marker 12, there are numerous days when it's blowing at the launch but not at the Sign where WT and Marker 14 are. Anyone who has Ikite knows this.

NWS didn't forecast any wind for anyplace today until 9 am and now it's blowing at 3rd av, the Delta, and all over the coast. The coastal forecast is still for 10-20 and it's blowing 25 at Dillon. They get the forecast wrong more often than they get it right, especially in the spring and fall.

Ikite is all about the sensors. They load as often as every 5 minutes, and you can see the trend over a few hours. I think I would have quit kiting 2 years ago if I hadn't starting paying for Ikite.
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It says 10M, but it's really a 9.
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Postby bobbyboom » Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:26 pm

Ikitesurf is worth the money in my opinion. It's like $8 a month. That's silly good. That and posts here is pretty much all I use to determine where the wind is and what it is gonna be.

Sitting on my butt today I watched the wind come up on Ikite and got a sweet session at Sherman with tons of other folks! To me that was worth more than 8 bucks. That sessions was so much fun! Happy kiting!

-Bobby
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Postby Proparoo » Sat Mar 31, 2007 8:37 pm

Paul & Bobby,

I totally know what you are saying, it's just that I prefer not to pay for this service...

I got it good today at SI on my 11m from 4 till 6pm

I forgot to mention how important a good "phone tree" is with good friends to call each other to let you know it's blowing...
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Postby narly1 » Sun Apr 01, 2007 7:38 am

Rich
F.Y.I.
i dont know where mike lives right now,but i have windsurfed with him here in the bay for years,
allover, from the waves on the coast to the tules in the delta.

i love my ikitesurf serves.

but like you i check all the noaa sites
and try to figure out the wind patters myself
forecasting,its a hard enough job allready.

and ya i too spent the day in the tules...
as per mikes forecast.

oh ,hes calling for the delta again today.
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Postby Proparoo » Sun Apr 01, 2007 8:08 am

Mike moved to the Gorge a few years ago. He is a great guy and a great forecaster. It's just that forecasting is a crap shoot at best and we should all take it with a grain of salt.

I got it good at Sherman yesterday way powered on my 11m. Most out on 10m

Should be good today too.

Wind Talker at 8am is reading 13 to 23 with an avg of 17 !!!

Go get yourself some..

Here is the forecasts for today:

SAN FRANCISCO SAN PABLO SUISUN BAY AND THE WEST DELTA-
258 AM PDT SUN APR 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WINDS 5 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT.
.MON...NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 TO 20 KT.
.TUE...W WINDS 5 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT.
.WED...W WINDS 5 TO 15 KT.
.THU...SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
340 AM PDT SUN APR 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MADE IT ONLY LOCALLY INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE LIKELY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BY DAYBREAK
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK ON
LOW CLOUD/DRIZZLE/FOG WORDING IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT COOLING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND BY LATE MORNING...AND THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN MOST OF THE DAY EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BC EARLY THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO DROP SE THROUGH THE PAC NW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND ALL
REMAINING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON`T CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY EXCEPT
FOR SOME WARMING IN AREAS THAT BENEFIT FROM A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW (I.E., COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS). LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY EXCEPT SLIGHT
WARMING IS LIKELY INLAND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT.

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE WSW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT PROBABLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE GFS IS HAVING
A TOUGH TIME DECIDING WHETHER THIS SYSTEM MIGHT PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUN INDICATED
SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS POSSIBLE...BUT BOTH THE 18Z AND 00Z RUNS WERE
DRY AND THE DECISION WAS THEN MADE TO SCALE BACK POPS TO LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. THE 06Z GFS IS JUST IN AND IT IS SHOWING A FEW HUNDREDTHS
ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST DATA AND ECMWF DO NOT SUPPORT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND SO WILL DISCOUNT THE 06Z GFS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CA. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THE WARMING TREND MAY END RATHER QUICKLY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY SATURDAY.
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Postby narly1 » Sun Apr 01, 2007 8:57 am

i saw 25 ave just a min ago..
and yes we as kite sailers should learn to forecast for areselfs
as you said.

i was on my 12m rhino all day... juiced
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