First Hint of a Change

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First Hint of a Change

Postby Pablito » Mon Apr 10, 2006 11:12 am

So, yesterday in the discussion section NWS forecaster for the Sac Valley made the first "out on a limb" long range forecast that I've seen. He said that signs are pointing to a change in patterns from wet/stormy to warm and dry (high pressure) sometime on or after April 22nd.

I have major professional reasons for needing this to be true, but I thought you guys would also like to hear that thermal wind might be on its way. Normally, there is a shift to N winds in the Valley for at least two weeks before it finally starts warming up here and generating heat, but I've also seen it flip completely from cold and rainy to 100 degrees literally overnight, which would turn on the thermals instantly.
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Postby pipedragon » Mon Apr 10, 2006 11:20 am

Let's just hope that all that snow in Tahoe. Now at 170% of normal does not melt. There are fears that the Sacramento valley could completly flood so I think the Delta would be screwed! I guess that would open up a whole lot of kitable water though too.
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Postby Don Bogardus » Mon Apr 10, 2006 12:52 pm

Alameda is starting to look like it is going to get good! :!:
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Postby Pablito » Mon Apr 10, 2006 12:55 pm

The Yolo Bypass has been kiteable for most of the winter...

Yes, an overnight switch to hot weather would be really bad, but it might be worse if it stays stormy but gets just a bit warmer. Forecast for this weekend is for snow levels to rise over 7000 ft, and they're already issuing warnings.

Three years ago (2003) we had a really cool spring, rain/snow into June (I skiied in a blizzard on May 24th), then it flipped completely and July was the hottest ever in the Sac Valley.

Anyone remember how the kiting was that summer?
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Postby Sander » Mon Apr 10, 2006 1:17 pm

The big snowpack runoff means that the delta will be essentially ebbing 24/7
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Postby Pablito » Mon Apr 10, 2006 7:20 pm

And don't forget the non-optional kiter-cross obstacles!
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Postby Greg » Mon Apr 10, 2006 7:29 pm

Ya!, like that slider that floated away last year.
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reflections

Postby zgur » Tue Apr 11, 2006 2:53 pm

Pablito - I remember 2003, It was my first year kiting. The wind was quite good and normal. I figured out that year that having a 12m as your small kite is not realistic if you want to kite in the delta.

Sander - it does NOT ebb 24/7, at least not in recent memory, wich goes back to 1988 with w/surfing.

Good winds + waves, Z.
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Postby Pablito » Tue Apr 11, 2006 4:29 pm

I thought that ebbing thing sounded wrong, but I'm glad someone else said it. I actually checked the Ikite archive for that year, and you're right on Z, it was nuking from April onwards. I just did a quick skim, but there were multiple weeks with multi-day bursts over 30 mph steady (like, from 11 am until 7 pm).

Now I'm curious what made that year different from this year. What I remember is storms coming through about every 10 days, which for me was perfect, because it was plenty of time to get work done, then sit back and let Mom Nature do the irrigation while I got in some spring skiing. So, not constant rain like this year, but still not the standard NorCal High pressure build.

In today's weather discussion for the Sac valley, the forecaster referred to the "seemingly permanent" low pressure off the NW coast of the US. :evil:
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Postby Sander » Tue Apr 11, 2006 4:34 pm

zgur wrote:Pablito - I remember 2003, It was my first year kiting. The wind was quite good and normal. I figured out that year that having a 12m as your small kite is not realistic if you want to kite in the delta.

Sander - it does NOT ebb 24/7, at least not in recent memory, wich goes back to 1988 with w/surfing.

Good winds + waves, Z.
Z: Based upon my experience in previous wet springs of being in the water during the middle of a strong flood, getting rafted upwind, I can tell you that big runoff will dominate the river, so that even if the tidebooks say it will be flooding, water is still going to be going downstream, effectively making it ebb all day and night.

With all this rain and snow I think we will see 'perpetual ebb' conditions in the delta this spring.

I just hope for some warm days and wind before fall.
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