Long range forcast

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Long range forcast

Postby weather watcher » Sat Jan 07, 2006 9:56 pm

SAN FRANCISCO SAN PABLO SUISUN BAY AND THE WEST DELTA-
833 PM PST SAT JAN 7 2006

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING W 10 TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
WINDS THEN DECREASING BY SUNRISE. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELTA.
.SUN...NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. PATCHY MORNING FOG NEAR THE DELTA.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING...MAINLY
NEAR THE DELTA.
.MON...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING...MAINLY
NEAR THE DELTA.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 5 KT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING.

.WED...SE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT BY MIDDAY. WINDS
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Postby Guest » Tue Jan 10, 2006 7:12 am

SAN FRANCISCO SAN PABLO SUISUN BAY AND THE WEST DELTA-
250 AM PST TUE JAN 10 2006

.TODAY...SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. RAIN LIKELY.
.WED...SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT...BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.

.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 5 KT.
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. RAIN LIKELY.
.SAT...W WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
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Postby Pablito » Tue Jan 10, 2006 8:30 am

It's hard to ignore how these two posts prove how tough it is for them to predict the wind more than two days out...
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Postby Sander » Tue Jan 10, 2006 11:07 am

Actually, this morning's forecast for today (Tuesday) is consistent with Saturday's forecast for today.
Now we'll have to wait for the end of the day to see if we really get SE 5-15. With the incoming storm looks like a pretty good chance that it will be validated.
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Postby Pablito » Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:34 pm

You can't tell me you're getting excited about SE 5-15? Isn't that almost the default position for this time of year?
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Postby weather watcher » Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:40 pm

getting excited here
friday...
saterday....
hell, ill go play with my "old amp 14m"
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forcast..energy outside..

Postby Coast toester » Tue Jan 10, 2006 6:24 pm

Swell time on the weekend

POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT TO 20 NM-
POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
235 PM PST TUE JAN 10 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT...BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT.
WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. NW SWELL 11 TO 15 FT AT 15 SECONDS. RAIN.
.WED...NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT.
NW SWELL 10 TO 13 FT AT 13 SECONDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 3 FT.
NW SWELL 10 TO 13 FT AT 12 SECONDS.
.THU...SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT.
NW SWELL 9 TO 11 FT.

.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT.
NW SWELL 9 TO 11 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.

.FRI...S WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. COMBINED SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
A CHANCE OF RAIN.

.SAT...NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT.
W SWELL 14 TO 17 FT. A CHANCE OF RAIN.

.SUN...SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT.
W SWELL 14 TO 17 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
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Postby Sander » Tue Jan 10, 2006 7:09 pm

5-15 ENE isn't exciting for windsports, but is good for surfing--offshores!
Just saying that the long and short term forecasts were consistent. Usually, the long range is way off, and the forecast gets adjusted as the date comes closer.
Maybe the computer models for long-term forecasting is getting better? Or the NWS just got lucky?
Looks like the weekend is going to be full of energy in the wind and water!
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Postby Pablito » Tue Jan 10, 2006 10:13 pm

Three days in a row forecast seems to increase the chances that one of them will be right...
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Postby charlie » Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:23 am

some of this has got to punch into the bay.

SAN FRANCISCO SAN PABLO SUISUN BAY AND THE WEST DELTA-
235 AM PST WED JAN 11 2006

.TODAY...SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT...BECOMING W LATER THIS MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. PATCHY DENSE FOG WEST DELTA.
.THU...NE WINDS 5 KT.

.THU NIGHT...E TO NE WINDS 5 KT.
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KT...DECREASING

TO 5 TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING. RAIN LIKELY.
.SAT...SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT...BECOMING W 10 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT.
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