Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

Local weather resources and topics.

Moderators: BayAreaKite, WindMuch

Re: Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

Postby ddubwinokur » Wed Apr 18, 2012 9:45 pm

Seriously, this is about the most helpful forum I have ever joined! Thanks again for all the advice.

So, recognizing that I should trust Yuri, I did go out to Alameda today. And things were horribly lame (for me - others looked amazing) until around 5, at which point things picked up, and even more so again at 6. By 6.30 things were at high teens to 20 for at least a solid half hour!

So thanks again for all the advice and recommendations, all. Fiance notwithstanding, I do feel pretty ready for 3rd - I'll hopefully hit it for the first time next week.

One question about 3rd. What do you do if you miss the last beach and start drifting towards the bridge? Get the Fastrak ready? :violin:

ddub/Dan Winokur
User avatar
ddubwinokur
Valued Contributor
Valued Contributor
 
Posts: 69
Joined: Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:24 pm

Re: Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

Postby Sonny » Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:41 am

If you come to 3rd, come see me and I give tell you about all what to watch out for. I drive a purple dodge truck with license plate SSWORDS and I always park by the lower beach.
User avatar
Sonny
Resident
Resident
 
Posts: 797
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 8:18 am
Location: Foster City

Re: Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

Postby windhorny » Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:51 am

Yeah, yesterday was off/on. Weird that the sensor said 19/22 for a while when it was more like 15. But later on I was pretty lit on my 10. Alameda is like a box of chocolates. And I am NO meteorologist! Just been kiting here for a long time.
User avatar
windhorny
Old School
Old School
 
Posts: 4035
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Alameda

Re: Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

Postby le noun » Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:06 am

I was definitely not able to go upwind when I started going to 3rd ave!
But I had my self rescue completely dialed in from alameda.
I did the walk from the lower launch to the upper launch a few times and even the walk of shame from last chance beach once.
Don't be afraid to ask people. The lower launch gang is super friendly.
(if you come with a pack of beer they even get friendlier, but chances are, Leo already have plenty on the back of his car). :mrgreen:
Kites: 2014 F-One Bandit VII: 12m, 10m and 8m. All pink/blue.
Board: 2014 F-One Spicy & 5'6 Fish.
Harness: Manera Exoharness.
Wetsuit: Underwave Sultan shortleg 4/3.
User avatar
le noun
Old School
Old School
 
Posts: 1357
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 11:12 am

Re: Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

Postby nick_80044 » Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:33 pm

ddubwinokur wrote:
One question about 3rd. What do you do if you miss the last beach and start drifting towards the bridge? Get the Fastrak ready? :violin:

ddub/Dan Winokur


Not sure which "last beach" you're referring to. There's the "lower launch," which is an "official" landing beach, and then there are three other "last chance" beaches where you can land in a pinch. If you look at Foster City in Google Maps in the Satellite view, you can see where these are. The third "last chance" beach is a just a tiny strip of sand very close to the bridge, so you definitely don't want to end up there if you can avoid it. The other two are a little friendlier, but all are small and became less available the higher the tide goes, so keep that in mind.
nick_80044
Regular
Regular
 
Posts: 545
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2010 11:00 pm

Postby jwest21 » Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:11 pm

A picture is worth a thousand words.
Attachments
mobileimage.jpg
mobileimage.jpg (176.57 KiB) Viewed 3703 times
User avatar
jwest21
SFBA Member
SFBA Member
 
Posts: 403
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:12 am
Location: San Francisco

Re: Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

Postby NCKite_Ryder » Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:05 pm

windhorny wrote:Yeah, yesterday was off/on. Weird that the sensor said 19/22 for a while when it was more like 15. But later on I was pretty lit on my 10. Alameda is like a box of chocolates. And I am NO meteorologist! Just been kiting here for a long time.



The beach was all PhuKED up also.. I was waiting for someone to actually get upwind... it said it was windy on Kelly's but the kites were showing otherwise.. then it popped at sunset.

Today is the SpRiNg TeAsE... I can't imagine it stays calm this weekend, usually spring just= rips for two week intervals.
6,8,10,12 RPM's
2010 UG FLX
2012 Firewire Flexfire Strapless

NorthCoastKiter -
User avatar
NCKite_Ryder
Resident
Resident
 
Posts: 660
Joined: Tue May 11, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Re: Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match

Postby kitenaked » Thu Apr 19, 2012 9:54 pm

NCKite_Ryder wrote:
windhorny wrote:Yeah, yesterday was off/on. Weird that the sensor said 19/22 for a while when it was more like 15. But later on I was pretty lit on my 10. Alameda is like a box of chocolates. And I am NO meteorologist! Just been kiting here for a long time.



The beach was all PhuKED up also.. I was waiting for someone to actually get upwind... it said it was windy on Kelly's but the kites were showing otherwise.. then it popped at sunset.

Today is the SpRiNg TeAsE... I can't imagine it stays calm this weekend, usually spring just= rips for two week intervals.



Yah, last year I had 9 or 10 days straight in April about this time in Benicia.
Chris

Kite Naked
Benicia Kite and Paddle Sports
238 1st Street
Benicia, CA 94510

510-900-WIND (9463)

http://www.kitenaked.com
Wainman - Cabrinha - Shinn - Underwave - Hyperflex
User avatar
kitenaked
Old School
Old School
 
Posts: 1806
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:57 pm
Location: Nor Cal

Re: Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

Postby rvv » Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:05 pm

tomerp wrote:I find computer forecasts to be more reliable during the winter, spring and fall. For example, windguru (solely computer models) can predict a good, kiteable winter or spring day accurately several days in advance. I have yet to see it make a wrong winter forecast (never happened to me since 2010)

However in summer months I find the computer models to be pretty useless because I don't think they take into account microclimates, thermals etc. So during summer I rely on human forecasts.

For the months of April and May, it is wise to consult both computer and human, but during April I give more credence to the computer models

I second this...Nws for the idea of wind etc...and the human touch for your spot!
I humanly predict a very windy season it started last week and next week will be epic starting Tuesday "; ";
Royce V
KGBswag
User avatar
rvv
Regular
Regular
 
Posts: 598
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2009 10:58 am
Location: oakland

Re: Alameda: why don't the human and cpu forecasts match?

Postby NCKite_Ryder » Fri Apr 20, 2012 11:36 am

[quote="rvvI humanly predict a very windy season it started last week and next week will be epic starting Tuesday "; ";[/quote]

I'm sticking with the threory of not being able to stop the Spring... not that our local forecasters are not EPIC (thanks guys), just that the pressure system seems to jump around sporadically in the spring.. last nights forecast was puke but today its on again... THANKFULLY!!

I happen to be an afterwork weekend warrior.
6,8,10,12 RPM's
2010 UG FLX
2012 Firewire Flexfire Strapless

NorthCoastKiter -
User avatar
NCKite_Ryder
Resident
Resident
 
Posts: 660
Joined: Tue May 11, 2010 8:22 am

Previous

Return to San Francisco Bay Area Weather Resources & Forecasts

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest