Yeah Adam's rule is true - I also started at Alameda and ultimately became frustrated by the lack of wind. Having said that, it does sometimes get decent wind early in the season (March/April), but usually by May/June it shuts down. This is from ikite's site information for Alameda:
"Since Alameda is not in the main wind pathway, it rarely gets strong summer wind but it does get swell from the main bay. Still, there are some days when Alameda gets strong winds during the summer -- look for deep fog over San Francisco and reports of high wind at the Altamont Pass."
Other than the forecast, one of the big frustrations is also the inaccuracy of the wind readings - it's very hard to tell what's really happening remotely - but I do agree that boardsport's facebook/twitter feed is helpful onsite information.
In terms of forecasts - ikitesurf does tend to miss badly on Alameda - I sometimes look at the NOAA website (forecast.weather.gov), where you can get custom forecast for any point in the bay, on water or land. Its not better or worse, just different.
This is some useful information I got awhile back from the late Don Bogardus, Alameda local and longtime instructor:
"Ikitesurf sensor is on west side of marina, and the readings are not reliable as to if it is worth the drive unless it it is SW WSW or WNW, and at least an average of 14. In addition, if wind is up and down, its a tough call. In general, SSW is usually very poor conditions, unless it is a hard ebb at the same time. Temperature is also worth observing, 54 to 63 seems to hold best winds. Watch sensor for smooth increase of SW to WSW @ approx 1 or 2 pm. Alameda is biggest crap shot in bay of the popular spots, but probably the least consequences if it shut down suddenly!."





now you know..one more thing I might add is if you follow the buddy system and have a bro in the area they can just walk outside and tell you where the low is then you will save yourself alot of time to get where the wind is the best.